Please check out my ms paint adventure in my sig!
Intro
So I just bought 50 gacha balls. This came about by a sudden influx of money, a late night, and a 'why the hell not?' attitude as I clicked the 'buy a gacha ball!' button fifty times and made poor Triumph cry.

But this, I thought, would be the perfect time to prove either Triumph or Mei right. We have threads like Gacha-ching, but I don't think anybody has tried to concoct an actual experiment as of yet as to what the chances are of getting things in gacha. So hopefully these 50 gacha balls will be filled with 50 eggs that hatch into 50 awesome things. (Or 50 magikarps.)

Run-down
-I have already bought 50 gacha balls
-Each ball will be filled with a mystery egg
-I buy the eggs as I go- they're not waiting in my PC, I buy them when I have room for another.
-I do not have Rei, so eggs hatch at a normal rate
-Once an egg hatches, I throw the pokemon in box 5 (which will eventually spill into box 6) of my PC and add it to the collection. I don't take off/tamper with the item.

The Point?
The point of this experiment is to check a few things- one, what are the chances of getting something 'good'? Out of 50, how many items are really rare? How many pokemon are retro, shiny, etc? This might help other people decide if it would be better to use gacha in hopes of grabbing the incense or kings rock they want or to simply feed other pokemon berries instead. This little experiment is also for fun. I hope other people will get as much of a kick at watching me get all magikarps with cherri berries as much as I do. Feel free to try to guess what will come out of an egg next!

Link me!
You can show your support by linking or giving me some cash to buy all these eggs :V

The results!
All pokemon can be seen in the Great Gacha Gambit collection here, but here is also the list of all the pokemon.




Statistics
50/50 eggs hatched
26/50 hold berries
2/50 hold stones
2/50 hold incense
10/50 hold pokeballs
5/50 hold evolutionary items
2/50 hold rare items (This means GB player, special TMs, etc.)
0/50 are legendary
1/50 are retro
0/50 are shiny
2/50 are second frame

Holy. 50 Eggs is gonna cost 65k o_e

That's why I am buying them as I go instead of all at once. XD It helps that the eggs don't hatch instantly so it gives me time to earn some money so I can always have eggs in my party.

Oh, dude, this is going to be good.

This is a very interesting experiment. Good luck! I'd love to see the end results.

Good luck. :V Hope you at least hatch a Legendary by the end!

Sounds like an awesome idea :D
Good luck with the experiment, and I hope you get at least a bunch of awesome Pokémon/items out of it. XD

-I do not have Lyrit, so eggs hatch at a normal rate

That's not what Lyrit does.

Anyway, I've been playing for ages and hatched many an egg, and I haven't received things that are SUPER RARE but rare items, yes. No heart scale or griceous orb or gb player for me. It's interesting to watch your experiment though. I'd also like to know where you posted your party to get that much money!

Thanks everyone! And try not to cry, haha. Another egg hatched- I was really surprised, it was an igglybuff with an ancientpower TM, which isn't a bad combo at all.



Ahh sorry, I didn't mean Lyrit, I meant Rei! I'll go fix that.

And I got the majority of that money (40k) by selling a shiny vulpix. (Also, this is random, but I noticed your icon- are you on poupee?)

Good luck!

You never know, you could end up with 20 Mews

"nyaa"

Great idea! I can't wait to see how this all turns out!

Wow, someone paid 40k for a shiny vulpix? IMMA GO HUNT THAT TRUCKERMOTHER. And yes, I am isamunee on poupeegirl LJ community.

I approve of this highly important scientific endeavor.

ALSO it is possible to get the rare items, I've gotten Pay Day TM and also a Gracidea. I still have the Pay Day, Zombie Magikarp traded the Gracidea for a Heart Scale and a promise to find me a Green version Caterpie <3

This is pretty cool to see even if I already know the exact percentages. Which, incidentally, I'll toss here.

Mystery eggs have the same chance of carrying retros/frame2s and shinies as regular, off-the-daycare eggs (and map Pokémon for that matter).

The chance of it being any one Pokémon is fixed except for legendaries. It basically just randomly pulls a Pokémon out of 492*.

(*Curiosity: You can't get Ditto from Gacha. I actually think there's a single Ditto that hatched from a mystery egg on the entire site and I'm still trying to figure out how this happened).

IF it pulls a legendary (there are 34, so a 34/492 chance), there's a 1 in 30 chance the legendary will be kept. Failing that check it'll pull another random dex number. So the chance of a legendary translates to 0.23%, or 34/14760.

If it pulls an evolved Pokémon, it'll "de-evolve" it. So Pokémon with large evolutionary lines have a better chance of coming up for this reason. Which basically means Eevee is probably the Pokémon with the highest chance of coming out of a Mystery Egg, surprisingly enough.

As for the chance of getting items (this goes for Gacha in general)...

Certain items (donation exclusives and key items) are excluded from Gacha by default.
There's a 1 in 200 (0.5%) chance of getting a rare item. Rare items include vitamins, non-evolutionary TMs other than Headbutt, the Everstone, Gracidea, GB Player and Griseous Orb. The chance of getting any one rare item is random, there's no preference given to any item in particular.

So most of the time, you get a common item. Among common items, there are items that have a higher chance of coming up: regular Poké Balls, Heal Balls, and all the common berries (Cheri, Pecha, Chesto, Aspear, Rawst).

To pull up a regular item the code arranges all the existing, eligible items into a list. At the end of the list it tacks on some extra Poké Balls, Heal Balls, et cetera. Then it pulls up a single random element from that list. The chance of it being one of the most common items (the ones tacked on at the end of the list) is roughly 50%. The other 50% of the time it'll be one of the other items, with an equal chance for each of them.

In short, your chances are slim. However, there HAVE been very rare items and legendaries obtained through Gacha before. It's kind of like a lottery - low odds have never stopped anyone...

ETA: Out of curiosity, I checked how many gacha legendaries have come up before: 17. An Azelf, 2 Celebi, 3 Deoxys, 2 Dialga, 2 Groudon, 1 Lugia, 1 Mew, 1 Rayquaza, 1 Regirock, 1 Suicune and 2 Zapdos.

Very, very fascinating. I'm looking forward to an update about the rest of the eggs!

So I guess I won't be getting those 20 mews All of those stats are really interesting, thank you!

As for the eggs, two are very close to hatching, but not quite there yet.